Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City

Istanbul has experienced rapid increases in population to more than 12 million people, which has created infrastructure problems of water supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. In this article, the achievements and approaches of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) to solve the water shortage problem and to improve services are summarized. Istanbul had a very severe water shortage problem in 1994 because of ignorance of the implementation of the needed projects. After reviewing the reasons and causes of the problem, new priority criteria adopted after 1994 are given. Following the implementation of the projects determined according to the aforementioned criteria, water supplied has exceeded the water demand. The added capacity is equal to one to three times of the capacity built up to 1994 for water treatment, service reservoirs, pumping stations, transmission lines, and the water distribution network; water quality has been improved the meet local and international potable water standards. Unaccounted for water has been reduced from 60% to 27%. The percentage of treated wastewater has been increased from 10% to 90% in 8 years, resulting in drastic improvements and rehabilitation of the Golden Horn and coastal water quality. Through improved customer services, complaints were reduced from 33% in 1994 to 0.3%. Some of the main criteria and the approaches behind this success are summarized. Published online     

Use of Physical Sciences in Support of Environmental Management

Offshore drilling for oil and gas has been conducted since the early 1900s. Oil and gas under the seabed continue to be an important part of the energy resources of the United States. The need to balance the value of these resources against the potential for environmental damage is an important concern. This article explains why and how the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior uses research in physical sciences to help fulfill its environmental goals, and it provides background information on the role of physical sciences in decision-making for Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil, gas, and other minerals development. Established in the 1970s, the MMS Environmental Studies Program is a highly focused marine research program designed to provide the environmental information necessary for OCS energy and nonenergy minerals planning and development activities. The physical sciences research supported by MMS includes physical oceanography, oil-spill risk analyses, atmospheric sciences, and sand and gravel studies. Instead of giving a comprehensive review on physical sciences research in MMS, this article presents sample MMS studies and illustrates how these studies are utilized to support decision-making in environmental management.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND WATER PROJECT EVALUATION1

Large-scale water projects have long been undertaken for the benefit of people. Information appears to be needed as to who benefits as a result of these projects. The hypothesis was tested that regional income and employment benefits would be closely related to areas where water projects were located. The analytical procedure centered on cluster analysis used to delineate counties in the Tennessee River Watershed on the basis of changes in selected variables over different periods. The hypothesis was rejected. It was concluded that benefits of water projects were not necessarily confined to isolated areas near projects but were regional.     

铁路安全预警系统的研究和实现

结合哈尔滨铁路局实际运营系统 ,基于事故树分析理论 ,探讨了铁路安全预警系统的实现。首先论述了事故树的建立方法和以事故树分析法为基础的铁路安全预警系统的核心算法 ,然后讨论了具体实现的数据结构和事故树编码方法 ,最后简要提出了铁路安全预警系统的系统设计思想     

Study of Trace and Heavy Metals in Rural and Urban Aerosols of Uludağ and Bursa (Turkey)

The concentrations of heavy, trace elements and major ions measuredin the Uluda and Bursa aerosols were investigated to assess size distributions, spatial and temporal variability, sources and source regions affecting the composition of aerosols in Uluda and Bursa. A total of 81 samples were collected in two sites, one in Bursa city and another in the Uluda Mountain during two sampling campaigns. Daily samples were collected using a high volume sampler on Whatman 41 cellulose filters in Uluda, while three days interval samples were collected in Bursa using an automatic dichotomous sampler on PTFE Teflon filters. Samples were analysed for 15 trace and heavy metals (Al, Fe, Ba, Na, Mg, K, Mn, Ca, Cu), (V, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn), and 4 major ions (SO₄ ^2-, NO₃ ^-, Cl^-), (NH₄ ⁺) using ICP-AES, GFAAS, HPLC and UV/VIS Spectrophotometer,respectively. In general, concentrations of the metals measured inUluda aerosols were lower than those in Bursa. The concentrations of crustal elements were higher in summer than winter, while anthropogenic elements had higher concentrations in winter than summer. Most of the mass of crustal elements was concentrated in the coarse mode while the mass of the heavy metals was concentrated in the fine mode. Factor analysis revealed four factors with sources including crustal, industrial and combustion. Back trajectory calculations were used to determine long range contributions. These calculations showed that contributions were mostly from European countries, former Soviet Union countries, Black Sea and North Africa.     

Characterization of Dust Storms to Hong Kong in April 1998

In April 1998, two intense dust storms were generated in CentralAsia and transported eastward across East Asia (15 and 19 April). This article presents the chemical characterization ofHong Kong (HK) aerosols during the dust storms. During the 15 Aprildust storm, hourly respiratory suspended particles (RSP)(particle diameter smaller than 10 m) concentrationsmonitored at 7 sites in Hong Kong reached the peak valuessynchronously between 9 and 11 a.m. on 17 April, in which thehighest concentration was 267 g m^-3. Analysis ofthe RSP samples showed that concentrations of crustalelements (Ba, Ca, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mg, K⁺) and anthropogenicspecies (As, Ni, Pb, Zn, NH₄ ⁺, NO₃ ^-,SO₄ ^2- and total carbon) were substantiallyenhanced. Enhancement of these species was more than afactor of 2 to 14 relative to the non dust period. The totalcarbon content was high, at 59 g m^-3 (notincluding carbonate), and the enrichment factors of Asand Pb on 17 April were 122 and 117, respectively. Thisimplied that anthropogenic materials together with mineraldust were transported to HK from Mainland China. Based onmaterial balance calculations, mineral dust contributed41% to the observed RSP mass on 17 April, which was 2 times thatof the nondust sample (22%). From the 5-day backwardtrajectory analysis, this storm was transported directlyfrom Northwest China to HK. However, there was nocorresponding observation for the 19 April dust stormaerosol. Consequently, 15 April storm had stronger impact onHK's atmosphere than 19 April storm. Compared to the HK AirQuality Objective, 15 April dust storm did not cause seriousair pollution in HK.     

Predicting mass rapid transit noise levels on an elevated station

This study developed a noise prediction model for elevated mass rapid transit (MRT) platforms. Relevant physical and operational parameters (e.g. cruise speed, acceleration and deceleration rates for trains, building fa?ade setbacks and so on) were collected from the Bangkok mass transit system (BTS), the first elevated MRT system operated in Bangkok, Thailand. The equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (L(Aeq)) were collected from both sides of the MRT stations at the center of each platform. The relevant parameters were collected on both platforms and ground level, on both sides of MRT stations. These parameters were statistically tested to determine their correlation with MRT noise. The final model was built from highly correlated parameters using multiple regression analysis with a stepwise regression technique. Statistical evaluation showed a high degree of goodness-of-fit test for the model to the observed data. Therefore, it can be efficiently used for the projection of MRT noise in the affected areas.     

Geographic Analysis of Forest Health Indicators Using Spatial Scan Statistics

Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.     

Landform Classification for Land Use Planning in Developed Areas: An Example in Segovia Province (Central Spain)

Landform-based physiographic maps, also called land systems inventories, have been widely and successfully used in undeveloped/rural areas in several locations, such as Australia, the western United States, Canada, and the British ex-colonies. This paper presents a case study of their application in a developed semi-urban/suburban area (Segovia, Spain) for land use planning purposes. The paper focuses in the information transfer process, showing how land use decision-makers, such as governments, planners, town managers, etc., can use the information developed from these maps to assist them. The paper also addresses several issues important to the development and use of this information, such as the goals of modern physiography, the types of landform-based mapping products, the problem of data management in developed areas, and the distinctions among data, interpretations, and decisions.